Silent Hill fic: Outbreak - Chapter 3: Epidemiological Report (cont.)

[mistressofmuses]

In chapter 3: Anna continues her study on the progression of the outbreak, focusing on the start of the school year, and a holiday weekend at Lakeside amusement park.

Anna Garcia’s Epidemiological report on unknown illness (cont.)

After the discovery of the campsite on August 24, it was several days before anything else relevant to the outbreak appears to have come to light.

Sunday, August 28, 2016

A final article was published in the Toluca Times regarding the disappearance of Kyle Ericson and Andrew Flynn.

[One week later, no new evidence in missing persons case

(published in print and online the morning of August 28.)

By Erika Matheson

Despite an intense search over the last five days, no new evidence has been found regarding the whereabouts of Kyle Ericson and Andrew Flynn, the two Silent Hill locals who went missing on Toluca Lake. It is presumed that they went missing one week ago, as the last known contact with them was around 9 PM on Sunday the 21st.

Last Wednesday, search and rescue crews found the remains of the young men’s campsite, along with evidence pointing to some sort of struggle. At the time, it was stated that the police were searching for a potential third party, but no leads have materialized.

Police are reluctantly scaling back their efforts, though Officer Gerald Daniels says that this should not be seen as the police abandoning the case. He says it represents their need to focus in a different direction.

It is not believed that there is any danger to the public relating to this case, but anyone going out onto the lake is urged to remain alert.

Anyone with information about Kyle or Andrew’s disappearance is urged to please contact the Silent Hill Police Department. Anonymous tips accepted.]

Wednesday, August 31, 2016

Wednesday was the first day of school for all public schools in Silent Hill: Midwich Elementary, Carroll Middle School, and Silent Hill High School.

Later interviews with some teachers and students revealed that they did remember a handful of young children coming to school with sniffles or minor coughs. However, as few of these ailments were at all severe, parents were reluctant to keep children home on the first day of class.

Prior to the start of classes, Midwich Elementary sent out an attendance policy regarding absences, requesting that call-in absences for reasons of illness lasting longer than two days be accompanied by a doctor’s note. This policy was heavily criticized after the fact, as many parents claimed this was why they felt they had to send their children to school, rather than keep them home when they were symptomatic.

[Excerpt from Midwich Elementary School’s back to school packet, regarding attendance policy:

2016/2017 School Year Attendance Policy:

We would like to let you know about some changes that have been made to our attendance policy going forward. Previously, any absence called in by a parent or guardian would be considered “excused.”

Due to some unfortunate abuse of this policy in previous years, it will now be required that any illness-related absence of more than two (2) days be accompanied by a doctor’s note. If a child is too ill to be at school, they are ill enough to visit the doctor!

Documentation is also required for non-illness-related absences (i.e. funeral, family emergency, etc.)

Any extended absences that are not accompanied by documentation will not be excused! This means your child may not be allowed to make up any missed work and will face in-school consequences regarding an unexcused absence.

We also ask all parents to be mindful of how many absences their child has over the course of the year. Even single days add up.

This policy is to ensure that all students are getting the most out of their education. We want them in class and learning!]

This policy was also criticized after the fact by many of the health care workers involved with the outbreak. One of the most effective ways of preventing the spread of any illness is for those infected to stay home, and yet this well-supported fact is frequently ignored when work and school attendance policies are enacted. The CDC, WHO, Maine Department of Health, and other health organizations all recommend staying home if you are sick. Discouraging students or employees from staying home while ill results in a direct increase in transmission of illness.

Looking at the evidence, this seems to create a plausible chain of transmission from my theorized origin point on Toluca Lake to Silent Hill High School, where a large number of students fell ill within the first week of classes.

I propose that if, as I theorized, the outbreak began on the unnamed island where Kyle and Andrew went missing, it had the potential to spread to some of the rescue workers who investigated the disappearance, particularly with the presence of blood evidence at the scene.

Paul Merrick, the man who led the team that found the campsite, did complain of illness the following day. (Hospital records show that he would be admitted to Alchemilla Hospital on September 10.)

His daughter Maddison, 8 years old, started third grade at Midwich Elementary. (She was also admitted to the hospital on September 10.)

One of Maddison’s classmates and friends, Jessie Rosen, had an older sister named Amber Rosen, a senior at Silent Hill High School. Jessie would be admitted to Alchemilla on September 11, and Amber would be admitted on September 12.

Weeks later, on September 25, I interviewed Amber in the hospital. She volunteered to give me access to her phone records, so that I could try to trace events as they happened.

I will include part of a text message conversation between Amber Rosen and her girlfriend, Kimberly Thorne, which I believe supports my proposed transmission chain.

[Partial text message conversation between Amber Rosen and Kimberly Thorne, the evening of August 31:

Amber: who gives homework on the first day of class?

Kim: apparently at least half my teachers. Have you done the trig hw yet?

Amber: haven’t looked at it. Writing my “introduction” for English

Kim: ugh

Amber: right?

Kim: sorry I can’t come over there to study… maybe once the school year gets going I can pretend to join a club or something, sneak over there instead ;)

Amber: I’d like that ;)

Kim: <3

Amber: <3

Kim: but how was the rest of your day after trig?

Amber: all right. Picked Jess up from school

Kim: how’s the kiddo doing?

Amber: good. She’s thrilled that she and Maddie are in the same class

Kim: Maddie? Is she the one who was in your summer camp session?

Amber: yup. Poor kid’s apparently sick, tho. Jess was worried about it

Kim: sick on the first day? Rough

Amber: usually the crud waits a week or two. Hope Jess doesn’t get it

Kim: hope not! If you get it, I’ll get it!]

Friday, September 02, 2016

By Friday, more parents and teachers were aware of sick children. The initial cold-like symptoms spread extremely quickly, with more children every day developing the first signs of runny noses, minor coughs, and headaches. At this point, symptoms were also noted in students at Silent Hill High School, many of whom had younger siblings at Midwich Elementary.

At this point, very few people considered this to be anything severe. Many assumed it was the proverbial “back to school crud” that always hits around the same time each year. Parents still refrained from keeping kids home, some referring back to the attendance policy, and others assuming that the forthcoming long Labor Day weekend would be enough of an opportunity for kids to rest.

Multiple doctors said they had noticed a small uptick in the number of cases they were seeing, but they similarly attributed it to the common cold. According to pediatrician Johanna Kairben, most patients were sent home with orders to rest and drink lots of fluids. Her office did run some specific tests, such as for streptococcal infection, but these tests came back negative.

While a low fever was present in some patients, the fact it wasn’t a dangerously elevated temperature (generally only registering in the range of 98.8 to 101.0 degrees Fahrenheit) meant it did not trigger any concerns over influenza. (And even if it had, all the patients would likely have tested negative for any strain.) These low fevers were treated with over the counter fever reducers, if they were treated at all.

Sunday, September 04, 2016

In my later interview with Amber, she admitted that she was afraid she could have been partially responsible for spreading the illness, as she felt sick but went to work on Sunday.

She worked at the Happy Burger in South Silent Hill.

She had tried to call in sick, she explained, but was told that they were already severely understaffed due to the holiday weekend, and she needed to come in anyway. When she expressed concern about being contagious, she says her manager threatened to cut her hours or fire her.

It also came to my attention that the manager of the franchise, a Mr. Leroy Olsen, was also hospitalized with the same illness, and died on September 23. When directed to their corporate customer service line, I was told that of course it was not Happy Burger’s policy to deny sick days to their employees, and that they always take consumer and employee health and safety very seriously.

(As an editorial aside: For anyone with connections to the medical field, I would recommend that more attention be paid to the sick leave policies of individual stores, as this could be a valuable point of outreach when it comes to limiting the spread of contagious disease. Additionally, a proactive store policy is not enough if the workers report a different standard—whether formal or informal—in practice.)

According to Gene Powell, a coworker of Amber’s, it was probable that Mr. Olsen simply hadn’t believed her when she called in. The manager tended to assume that the many teens who worked for him were untrustworthy, and likely thought she was just hungover from a Saturday night party. Had he realized the true severity of the illness, perhaps he would have taken it more seriously, and perhaps he would have even avoided his own infection and death.

Monday, September 05, 2016 (Labor Day)

Based on patient history, doctors at Alchemilla have proposed Lakeside Amusement Park served as one of the main centers of transmission. While the park had closed for the season by the time the outbreak had officially started (with the rash of hospitalizations on September 10), many of those who would later be hospitalized visited the amusement park over the weekend.

There were myriad pathways for the infection to get into Lakeside, considering the popularity of the park as a holiday destination. After this, it almost certainly became a hotbed for transmission over the long weekend, where close contact among crowds of people allowed the illness to spread prolifically.

Once again, Amber’s text messages provide evidence of at least one route of transmission, with implications of several more.

[Partial text message conversation between Amber Rosen and Crystal Davis, the morning of September 05:

Amber: what are you doing today?

Crystal: work. :(

Amber: oh yeah, closing day, right?

Crystal: sucks

Amber: you have the flu too? I feel so crappy I just want to stay in bed

Crystal: idk. Feels like it. I called in, but they said too many ppl already called out sick. Lucky me

Amber: maybe if you throw up on a kid they’ll send you home haha

Crystal: haha

Amber: at least it’s your last day!

Crystal: maybe my last day EVER if I die

Amber: hahaha you aren’t going to die

Crystal: it wouldn’t be the 1st time u kno

Amber: that you died?

Crystal: that someone died on shift >;)

Amber: oh no, not that urban legend crap! No, no no!

Crystal: it was 1 of the mascots. He felt a little sick when he clocked in…

Crystal: but he put the costume on and went out… can’t disappoint the kids who want to see robbie the rabbit!

Crystal: but he felt worse and worse. So he sat down on 1 of the benches…

Amber: nooooooo

Crystal: …just to take a little break

Amber: nope, nope, nope

Crystal: his manager went to grab him, angry he’d fallen asleep…

Crystal: AND THEY REALIZED HE’D DIED IN THE SUIT! He’d been dead for hours!

Amber: haha, gross. I don’t think that ever really happened. I’ve been hearing that story since elementary school!

Crystal: I swear it did tho. All the employees talk about it. They covered it up or something, said the guy went home and died of something else. U kno, they probably never even washed the costume?

Amber: that’s disgusting.]

While I cannot speak to the veracity of Crystal’s urban legend about Lakeside, I was able to obtain the phone record of when she called in that morning. Law enforcement provided the tapes, as Lakeside is a location that records all incoming phone calls for “record-keeping and quality control purposes.”

[Transcript of a phone call, placed from Crystal Davis’ phone to Max Schiel, manager at Lakeside Amusement Park; call placed 8:25 AM:

Crystal: Hey, Max, it’s Crystal.

Max: Hey Crystal, what’s up?

Crystal: Well, I’ve been feeling kind of under the weather, and I woke up feeling really, really sick this morning…

Max: Oh no, Crystal.

Crystal: So is there any way that I could maybe stay—

Max: No, Crystal. I’m sorry, but we really have no one to cover for you. It’s closing day, day three of a three-day weekend, and Sherry, Dolores, and Nick already called in. I don’t know what crap is going around, but it’s knocking everyone out. Please, Crystal, we really need you. We’re already going to be short-staffed, and this is one of the busiest days of the year.

Crystal: Really though, I feel super sick.

Max: How about you come in late. You’re supposed to start at 10, how about I give you until 11:30? You could even go back to bed, take a nap or something. Gates open at noon, so you can come in just before that, not worry about any of the setup.

Crystal: I guess, but—

Max: I can move you away from the ticket booth. I think you’re supposed to be at the admissions gate, but I can swap you into one of the stores. The Sweet Factory Store, maybe? It won’t be slow, since people always want candy, but it won’t be like working a booth or admissions. You’ll have someone else there with you, and once we get into the evening and the rush is over you can go home.

Crystal: Okay, I guess I can do that.

Max: Okay. I’m sorry, Crystal. But thank you for being willing to tough it out. I’ll see you later, all right? I hope you get a little more rest and feel better.

Crystal: Okay, thanks Max. Bye.]

After this, we know that Crystal did go in for her shift, but did not end up completing it. Her symptoms worsened throughout the day until she grew completely unable to work. The coworker stationed with her in The Sweet Factory Store, Emma Carter, says Crystal had to rush out of the public part of the store and then remained in an employee-only area where she was able to lie down. She intended to return to work, but continued to worsen, and was sent home before the park closed.

We do know she did not seek medical treatment at the time, but decided to stay home and rest. Her symptoms, according to Amber Rosen, stayed more or less consistent after this, and she did not want to go to the doctor. She would eventually be hospitalized on September 7 when her family became concerned that she was not improving.

Her symptoms were not initially attributed to the same illness responsible for the many hospitalizations on September 10, and therefore did not affect the officially declared “start” of the SHIO outbreak, but I believe that by now it is obvious that she was merely presenting a mix of symptoms typical of a later phase of the disease. (Though why it progressed so much more quickly in her is one of many remaining questions.)

While we do not yet have any definitive numbers regarding the overlap between patrons of Lakeside Amusement Park and hospitalizations, we know that said overlap was significant. I wish to clarify that my focus on Crystal Davis is in no way intended to imply I think she is somehow solely responsible for spreading the illness to Lakeside; I believe it’s obvious that there were many concurrent paths of transmission. My focus on her is simply to trace one of the paths that I have evidence to follow.

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